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Last week, we said that odds slightly favor sideways to up.

It closed above the 20-week exponential moving average.

This week’s E-mini candlestick was a bull bar closing near the high with a long tail below.

If they do, the odds of the E-mini trading higher increase.

Traders will be monitoring if the bulls can create a consecutive bull bar or not.

For now, odds slightly favor sideways to up as the E-mini should still be in the pullback phase.

The bulls will need to create a consecutive bull bar in August to increase the odds of a re-test of the all-time high.

It may even gap up on the monthly chart next week.

Since it is a bull bar closing near the high, it is a buy signal bar for August.

The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time.

July was an inside bar the E-mini is in breakout mode.

They want a reversal higher from a wedge bull flag (February 24, May 20 and June 17) and a trend channel line overshoot.

The bulls see the move down from the January top as a two-legged pullback.

Bulls want the breakout below May low to fail and reverse back up.

However, the bears failed to create a follow-through bear bar below May low.

They want a measured move down to 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range height or lower around 3450, based on the height of the 12-month trading range starting from May 2021.

The bears see the move down in June as the second leg down from the 1 st leg in April.

Last month, we said that the trend channel line overshoot in June increases the odds of a pullback to begin within 1-2 months.

It reversed to close above 20-month EMA in July, like the prior 2 occurrences.

The E-mini closed below the 20-month EMA in June.

The E-mini then reversed to close above the 20-month exponential moving average the following month.

The last 2 times the E-mini closed below the 20-month exponential moving average were during the sell-off in December 2018 and the Covid-19 sell-off in 2020.

The July monthly E-mini candlestick was a big bull inside bar closing near the high.